I don't post often to this blog, but I needed to get this shared and this is the best venue I have to do so with. This is long, but if you read it all you will understand why I believe trump will be the next President.
I'm only grabbing information for the polls above that are questionable to help you understand why RCP's average is wrong. Mostly you will see how the pollsters over-sampled Democrats, Independents, and women on most of these polls. In the poll below. the NBC/Wall Street poll below they actually interviewed 50% Obama voters ij 2012 and only 35% of those who voted for Romney in 2012.
Makes you wonder about those who can't remember if they voted 4 years ago? Notice they interviewed 6% more women than they did men? Add that to the ridiculous over sample of Obama voters compared to Romney voters and is it any wonder NBC/Wall Street Journal has Hillary up by 5%? More on the woman factor in my closing remarks.
I drew a yellow line from the party ID to the result in the one above so you can see how their sample gave them the 12 advantage for Hillary they reported in late October that had everyone claiming Trump should drop out. Yet, as their party ID sample tightened, so did their result. which should tell you to always, always ignore any and all Post/ABC polls.
There are a few interesting things to note from the McClatchy-Marist poll above. Especially when you consider they under polled Republicans. If you recalculate the number you would find that Trump does much better against Hillary with men than she does with women which is skewed by the over sampling of Democrats. Plus when pollsters say college educated vs college uneducated, they mean those with a 4 year college degree vs anyone who does not have a 4 year degree. I cannot stress the importance of the fact that there are almost 80% more Americans who went to college but never graduated, or just received a 2 year degree compared to the number of Americans who earned a 4 year degree.
No explanation needed for Ipsos poll above. 39% Democrats to 28% Republicans. Oh they move within 1point closer to 10% difference when asked how they lean. WOW, Big deal! Nothing more to see on this useless poll. On to the next one.
In the screenshot above of the Economist/YouGov Poll you can see that their poll uses 41% Democrats and 27% of Republicans with 29% of Independents. Even when ask what they consider themselves in the category offered, only 15% consider themselves to be strong conservative compared to 26% of Democrats. These are the polls they use to get a higher average than possible for Hillary as we head into election day. The polls by the MSM is no longer a poll of how you think, but rather a tool to get others to vote the way they want you to vote or to discourage Republicans and conservatives from voting.
I truly believe that Trump will win the election by 3% to 5%. One of the biggest reasons will be that the numbers I have for Florida shows Trump will win big. If Trump does win Florida, then the rest of the battleground states are going to fall to him like dominoes. I see Trump taking Florida by over 3%. In other Battle Ground states, Trump is doing a lot better than the MSM pollsters have him doing.
My formula for Florida doesn't work for other states, but it is consistent with Florida Presidential elections going back to 2000 when GW won a squeaker over Gore. I tested the formula for 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012, and it works within .3% for all Presidential elections I tested in Florida.
In nut shell, it has to do with the number of registered voters for each party in Florida, and a tried and true formula of 87% of the registered Democrats voting compared to 97% of Republicans who always vote. With such a close number of Dem vs Rep registered voters, Trump will carry the state by 3% or more. Maybe a lot more if the number of democrat cross overs do vote for trump as many believe will happen. However, my numbers do not take Democrat cross over votes in consideration.
It came out this morning from Fox, that polls show Trump gaining support among blacks that has not been seen for a Republican candidate since Nixon. Fox reported that polling by Remington Research shows Trump getting 22% in Florida, Romney got 5 percent. In North Carolina, Trump’s getting 19%, Romney got 4 percent. Trump’s getting 22% of black voters in Wisconsin compared with Romney’s 6% 4 years ago. And in Pennsylvania, Trump scores an astounding 29% against Romney’s 7% share in 2012. If it turns out like this, I would keep all Liberals away from anything sharp until they wake up from their stupor.
The other day someone asked me if I thought the effect of Hillary's ground game across the country would win it for her. Now while I do understand the effect and importance of the ground game, this election is like no other. Well consider the fact that no one had the ground game that Ted Cruz had in the Republican Primary, which is one of the reason his his followers were so hard headed in coming over to support Trump.
This year is different, and the biggest reason is that Trump has become a bit of a rock star, similar to what Obama was in 2008. OH, I know there will be less people voting, but all Trump has to do is be compared to Hillary, who cannot get many to show up for her rally's. Even when big celebrities like Jay Z and Beyonce show up to give free concerts. Trump however is like Obama was in 2008, he can bring in 10s of thousands of people to a rally with less than 24 hours notice. Thus the rock star status money cannot buy.
Plus, Donald Trump truly is the outsider who knows how the other side works. He know the in's and out's of the opposition because he has had to deal with them and even foriegn governments for 30 years as he needed to work with them to build Towers in New York, Chicago, Hollywood, Toronto, Brazil, and even in Istanbul. Not to mention the world renown golf courses, and Casinos he built.
Donald is also like us normal folk in that he came from the wrong side of the tracks. Yes, like it or not, Trump is not a socialite. He is not one of them, but he has defeated them at their own game for 30 years by doing what he does better than they could ever dream of doing.
See, Trump is rude crude and sometimes socially unacceptable. I guess he is like me in many ways. It's just that he started out with more and turned it into a lot more. True. While I started with nothing, I did increase my wealth by almost as much as he did percentage wise. Now even though I was a huge Ted Cruz supporter, whom I fought tooth and nail to get the nomination, I admit that I do identify with Trump.
All this just to say that Trump and the way he does things has trumped a good ground game by Hillary. He did it against Cruz's ground game, and he is doing it again against Hillary's ground game. So having a strong ground game is nullified by Trumps understanding of the media, and his regular guy persona. For Trump, us normal American guys and gals are his ground game. Something that a normal political ground game cannot overcome, as Cruz found out. We are his ground game because HE IS ONE OF US. He just did better with what he started with than many of us did.
As for the leaked interview tape with Billy Bush, which I thought would kill him, actually helped him. Not my opinion, my wife's. Yup. My wife told me that the fact that he sometimes slips with his tongue in a bad way, it humanizes him with her. And, my wife used to hate him. Truth be told, many of us regular Americans can relate to to a person who screws up at times. I believe that, like us when we screw up, so too does Trump have a good heart. What woman has not rolled her eyes after her husband said the worse thing possible at the worse time possible?
Did you know that both Churchill and Benjamin Franklin were both womanizers? Yup. Ben was America's first ambassador, and while in France the snooty Socialites loved him. Especially the high and mighty women of royalty. Like the women of France, I bet there are many women in Hollywood who like Donald Trump more than they will ever admit. Why? Because uptown girls like the bad boys from downtown.
Winston Churchill was a womanizer, he drank too much, smokes huge stogies, and even left government in disgrace once. yet he returned and his extraordinary leadership in World War Two that marked him as one of histories greatest leaders of all. He was bold, outspoken, brave and tireless in his resolve to take on the might of Hitler and his unstoppable war machine. He inspired a nervous and hesitant Britain through his sheer energy and force of personality to defy the murderous odds against them and to never ever give in. Trump has the same resolve. He does not know defeat, and will not back down when confronted with those who tell him to quit.
Like it or not, more women than you may believe like the tough guy image of a man who stands his ground instead of backing down. A man who does not have to draw a line in the sand, because others respect him for who he is and takes him by his word. Most women want a husband like that. Even if today's society tries to tell her to take the metrosexual instead.
A few weeks ago I was looking at the internals of an ABC poll and was shocked to find that Trump led Hillary with the white women's by 3 points, yet overall women preferred Hillary by 11 points. All that happened was they interviewed more black women than would ever vote. However, it helped them keep the meme that woman hate Trump and that was their goal.
In closing, I expect Trump to cause many liberals to wake up with wet beds come Wednesday morning, because Trump is going to win by 3 to 5 points over Hillary, and probably win 300 or more electoral college votes to win in an easy victory. Get ready for the hand wringing of the MSM as they try to figure how they could possibly be wrong. Gee, maybe it's their skewed polls that threw them off. Ya Think?
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